The world is growing older. By this, we mean that the share of old people is increasing. Across the planet people are living longer and having fewer children, which, in turn, raises the average age of the global population. This phenomenon has its local variations, however –– the timing and pace of longevity gains and fertility declines vary dramatically around the world, leading to divergent patterns of aging. That’s why one of the centerpieces of the Stanford Center on Longevity is the Global Aging Program, which focuses on the geopolitical ramifications of differential aging trends in developed and less developed regions of the world. Led by Adele Hayutin, PhD, the overarching goal of the Global Aging Program is to initiate collaborative research and public discourse on the challenges of population aging.

Q. Dr. Hayutin, why is it important to understand the different aging patterns around the world?

A. These demographic developments and divergent patterns have significant implications for economic growth, political stability, and national security. Understanding how they are likely to unfold is critical for addressing them wisely. The global economic and political implications are huge and the stakes for individual countries are high.

Q. Former Secretary of State George Shultz says that “global aging is among the most pivotal changes of our time.” What are the areas of most concern?

A. There are many reasons to be concerned about different areas of the world. In countries that are aging rapidly, such as Germany and Japan, there is real concern about how the economy will support a population that is “top-heavy” with older people. You have a large and growing segment of the population that is relying on a shrinking workforce to provide social services, infrastructure support, defense, and other things. The aging of those societies will raise many new social and political questions. For example, will people have to work to an older age, and how will the state and families balance the increasing demands of caring for elders.

A dramatically different picture is emerging in the most youthful countries of the developing world. There are areas of Africa and the Middle East where the birthrate is still high and with that comes a soaring population of young adults. Jobs are scarce and the population is poor. Those ingredients are a recipe for volatility and, some would argue, the rise of extremist factions that exploit uneducated, disenfranchised young people. These two examples represent what happens when a population is predominantly old or predominantly young. . While most countries have age structures somewhere between these extremes, the speed of demographic changes makes effective adjustment extremely challenging and is another cause for concern.

Q. What kind of public discourse has taken place so far?

A. In March 2007, the Global Aging program helped plan and participate in a State Department Summit on Global Aging, which included sessions on economic, health and security implications of population aging. At the Congressional Briefing on Global Aging, held in May 2007, I was one of four speakers in a briefing entitled “Why Population Aging Matters", which was presented to the Senate Special Committee on Aging.

Q. What cross-national research is underway?

A. SCL has contracted with the Population Reference Bureau to investigate the feasibility of developing a database for cross-national comparison of aging-related policies and programs and to develop indicators of elderly well-being. These indicators will facilitate cross-country comparisons of elderly status and cross-country analysis of alternative policies and programs. Our goal is to develop quantitative as well as qualitative information on various aging-related policies and programs so that we can begin to understand and suggest best practices.

Additionally, we are working with Stanford’s Institute for Research in the Social Sciences (IRiSS) to develop a comprehensive database that would integrate demographic and economic data from multiple sources and that would be easily accessible for academic researchers and policy makers. Our goal is to facilitate comparative analysis of country demographic data and analysis of economic and political implications of demographic change.

Q. Why is cross-national analysis so important?

A. Changes in age structure differ dramatically across countries. A comparative approach will highlight the differences and make it much easier to understand the economic and political consequences that are unfolding. A comprehensive database and systematic analysis of differences across countries is critical for understanding the economic issues and complex interrelationships that are likely to develop between aging countries with shrinking populations and young countries adjusting to their rapidly changing age structures.

For example, in talking about US immigration policy, it would be useful to understand that due to Mexico’s steeply declining birthrate and rapidly aging population, there will be fewer and fewer potential immigrants into the US in the coming decades. At the same time, there will be slower and slower growth in the US working-age population. A cross-national approach would facilitate analysis of the demographic complementarities that exist across borders. We’re trying to facilitate such analyses.

Another project under investigation is development of interactive graphic displays of demographic data and trends. Such a tool would allow policymakers and other users to visualize the impacts of changes to key factors such as fertility and labor force participation. Understanding such impacts will be critical in discussing policy changes for mitigating the consequences of population aging.

Publications by Adele Hayutin:

Global Demographic Shifts Create Challenges and Opportunities- PREA Quarterly
Adele M. Hayutin

How Population Aging Differs Across Countries: A Briefing on Global Demographics
Adele M. Hayutin

The Graying of the Global Population
Adele M. Hayutin

Global Aging: The New New thing- The Big Picture of Population Change
Adele M. Hayutin